ASSESSMENT RECORD
What we wrote, and what happened next
We publish our past assessments against what actually occurred, and seal new assessments with a cryptographic fingerprint before the events, so any reader can verify them.
Jordan is entering a phase of strategic restructuring with security as the priority, including changes in leadership positions.
What happened
- Jan 2026: Royal directive to restructure the Armed Forces over three years.
Jordan’s northern and north-eastern borders face a phase of rising security pressure; readiness should be raised.
What happened
- May 2026: Jordanian air strikes on smuggling sites in Sweida.
- 23 Oct: terrorist attack on a church in Karak.
- 26–27 Oct: Jordanian strikes in Daraa and Sweida.
- 30 Oct: infiltration attempt by 14 gunmen from Syria foiled.
State resources and land will be put on the table; the terms warrant independent legal scrutiny.
What happened
- Aug 2026: draft law on investing natural resources, allowing treasury land at nominal rents.
Events consistent with earlier assessments
An assessment published before the event, set against what occurred. These are not counted in any hit rate: the assessment describes a threat pattern, not a specific incident.
Assessment text
“The risk remains confined to a low-to-medium range, linked to the possible movement of lone actors or isolated local cells lacking advanced weaponry and high-level training; strengthening preventive intelligence surveillance remains the principal safeguard for neutralising threats at their inception.” (translated from Arabic)
What happened
A single attacker armed with bladed weapons attacked security personnel outside an embassy on Al-Madina Al-Munawwara Street, Amman; one officer was killed and another injured, and the attacker was arrested.
Consistent
Lone actor, primitive weaponry, low-to-medium threat level.
Still under watch
The report put the probability of a complex, coordinated attack within three months at 5–20%.
For the Jordanian decision-maker →
Other assessments cannot be published given their sensitivity; they reached the relevant authority at the time.
Fingerprints of the original assessments (SHA-256)
21/2/2026001a1754c85b9794b5db2b432ee01ab80dbfbec4bf9a93628f0a226b5cd840ab
24/2/202673be01badffa5a04ca8a5bf8e40d9931cd5942693a0ff1ddd40bf9b63babf915
24/2/20262aaf4c9a461e4c5925e9f815b48431de7dc0bcf778d17f96e9f10347b6c8282d
9/3/2026d86a8c82788f75034b613e0491d90ac4683378b65388be6a2636998b71f0ac00
Sealed assessments · sealed 1 Nov 2026 · window to 31 Dec 2026
Each text is held unchanged; its fingerprint was published on the sealing date. The text is revealed when the event occurs or the window closes.
P-01b6a587a7e4fcc07c36465aca77f665f47e44deaf1163930f8db774c18fc3ad40Pending
P-021ac15884b771c498eca78b4f3938c074bf3199c2b5f7ad7b5f22ea53acee392cPending
P-03a4e75e3f825f911efbb7bda4c57cd87e8dfae9a8b9e66ec3b53adfa6ab653d59Pending
P-04c158d809a023898e676d7b30a5e0365c468a9bd6bb49254542a08ee44350ad4fPending
How to verify: paste the revealed text into any SHA-256 tool and compare the result with the fingerprint here. Changing a single character changes the fingerprint.