Real outputs from the platform, prepared with the method we use for clients: judgements on a fixed likelihood scale, dated sources you can check, and a bottom line with a recommendation. Recipient details removed. Most samples are available in English and Arabic.
Past assessments set against what occurred, and four new assessments sealed with a cryptographic fingerprint through 31 Dec 2026.
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How Beijing is using Washington's preoccupation with the Iran war in the South China Sea and around Taiwan, and what that means for Gulf energy flows to Asia to mid-2027. Key judgements with likelihood and confidence, observed facts with graded sources, critical assumptions, alternatives, and the indicators that would change the judgement.
What happens to Europe's defence industry if semiconductor shipments from Taiwan fall by half. Three courses of action tested against the adversary's capabilities, compared for suitability, feasibility and acceptability, with a recommended decision and a forward reading with likelihoods.
ANL-1026 was published between 01:35 and 02:25 on 26/10; the arrests were announced at 05:30. This document sets the estimates published before the arrests against the officially announced outcome, with no change to the original figures: a 65% probability of arrest within two weeks, realised after 63 hours, through a clash as estimated.
We put a 65% probability on arrest within two weeks, most likely through a clash; it came after 63 hours, through a clash. Updated risk dashboard, what our estimates got right, source-graded facts, comparison with three Jordanian precedents, four scenarios with probabilities to 23 November, indicators to watch, and specific guidance for tourism, insurance, banking, events and foreign companies.
Between Israel's election on 27 October and the US midterms on 3 November, ten days will set the course of the Gulf. Key judgments with confidence and basis, scenarios with stated likelihoods, Admiralty-graded sources, and specific expectations that can be checked.
View ↗Forward-looking intelligence report · updateThe threat trajectory over the next three months: key judgements with likelihoods, observed facts with sources, critical assumptions, alternatives, warning indicators and the forward reading.
View ↗Situation assessment · updateAfter the attackers’ background was announced: the two competing hypotheses and their indicators, where the indicators stand now, the more likely hypothesis, the forward reading and a recommendation.
The first two outputs, issued on the day of the attack before the attackers’ background was known. We keep them published so you can compare the assessment with what happened.
View ↗Situation assessmentA structured reading of a defined event: aim, position and courses of action, scenarios with likelihoods, the indicators that would change the judgement, and a recommendation.
View ↗Analytical articleA tight analysis of what happened, why it matters and what has not been said yet, written for a decision-maker with ten minutes.
We prepare reports and assessments on our clients’ own questions, under a mutual confidentiality agreement. Start with a free trial, or request the private service if you are a decision-maker or represent one.
Every issued document carries a verification number and QR code that can be checked on the site. Content is for illustration and is not advice.