Sample report
Illustrative sample. The company, figures and findings below are fictional and are shown only to demonstrate structure and tone.
SA-SAMPLE · Situation assessment
Red Sea routing disruption: exposure of a mid-sized food importer
Bottom line
Probable (65–75%) that delivery lead times from Asian origins stay 10–18 days above normal through the next quarter. Costs, not availability, are the main risk.
Intentions
Carriers prioritise rerouting over a return to the shorter route while insurers keep war-risk premiums high; no carrier signals an early return.
Past
Comparable disruptions in 2021 and 2024 resolved over months, not weeks; surcharges lagged the recovery of routes by one to two quarters.
Present
Aqaba berth waiting times are within the normal range; inland haulage rates are the tightest link. Evidence on warehouse capacity is thin and graded low-confidence.
Foresight
- •Base case (60%): elevated lead times and surcharges persist.
- •Improvement (25%): partial return of carriers, costs ease late in the quarter.
- •Deterioration (15%): wider escalation, new rerouting and higher premiums.
Recommendations
- •Raise safety stock for the three longest-lead SKUs by two weeks.
- •Fix freight rates for part of the volume while premiums are volatile.
- •Review again if carriers announce a return to the shorter route.
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